Trading on Sentiment

As I'm learning and developing in my progression as a trader, the number one reason I think people fail is lack of emotional control, not trading knowledge.  There is a reason why 90% of people lose money in the stock market.  It's not surprising really.  The stock market consists of people expressing their hopes, fears, and feelings in all their transactions.  Analysis of technicals and fundamentals account for probably only 20% of successful trading.  The other 80% is the ability to stick to a disciplined strategy.  The reason for that is that losing is an integral part of trading.  In fact, losing greater than 50% of the time is the norm.  Humans, however, are not wired to accept losses very easily.  We are prewired to be loss adverse.  Overcoming this is not so easy.

Right now, sentiment is bullish.  The Fed has promised QE2 and it looks like the market will never go down as a result.  It's situations like this that are ripe for shorting.  The USD is way oversold and should a reversal take place, commodities should reverse accordingly.